Real-World Answers for Real-World Investors

When it comes to options, investors want answers. It is critical that they know what an option is worth so they can make intelligent, informed trading decisions.

Black-Scholes, Cox-Ross-Rubenstein, Bjerkslund-Stensland, Roll-Geske-Whaley, CEV, Jump-Diffusion... these are just some of the many option models investors turn to. Not only can these models be used to value an option, they can also be used to estimate probability.

The thing is, each of these models treats every stock, every index, every ETF similarly. For instance, the shape of the probability distribution embedded in the widely used Binomial Model to calculate option value is the same, whether you're valuing options on a stock as wild as nVidia (NVDA) or as quiet as Coca-Cola (KO).

We call this tendency to use the same formula every time "one-size-fits-all". And the fact is, it just doesn't work. What's even more ironic is that most traders know they don't work. But they use them anyway because, at least it gives them an answer.

The reason these models don't work is because different stocks, different indices, different ETFs... they're all, well, different. And if you're using a one-size-fits-all model to perform critical calculations like probability and valuation analysis, you're getting an answer, but the answer might be wildly off base.

The goal of these three ODDS Analytics applications is to put an end to the one-size-fits-all dilemma that has plagued traders for decades.

Our Historical Return Analysis app gives you what you need to determine when the models might truly be representative of what's happening with any stock, index or ETF... or when the one-size-fits-all formulas are probably giving you misleading results.

Our Expected Probability app gives you the probabilities expected by market participants based on the prices of options. We measure what traders are actually doing with their money, as opposed to coming up with an estimate derived from an over-optimized theoretical model.

Our Distribution-Based Option Value app gives you everything you need to calculate option values based on how a stock truly behaves, as opposed to limited-capability models that can never fully consider what happens in the real world.

Put simply, our tools give you what you need to make a more informed trading decision.

And when you're better informed, you become a better, smarter trader.